Global broadband subscriber growth in Q4 2023 slowest since 2019

In Q4 2023, global fixed broadband connections reached 1.43 billion, following a quarterly growth of 0.96%. We recorded a decline in fixed broadband subscriptions in 18 countries[1], down from 21 in Q3 2023. Some of these markets have high mobile subscriber penetration, others are experiencing high inflation and / or are already highly saturated markets, for example – Sweden, Switzerland, Monaco and Italy. Yet others are at war.

Some key points:

• As the economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues, the global quarterly growth rate was the lowest since 2019. Given the size of its market, a much slower than usual growth in China had its impact. The highest growth came from the developing and least saturated markets.
• The share of FTTH/B in the total fixed broadband subscriptions increased further and stood at 69.5%. Broadband connections based on other technologies saw their market shares shrink again, with an exception of satellite.
• Year-on-year, FTTH/B connections grew in double figures (+10.3%). FWA was another technology group that saw annual growth (+6.6%), while subscribers over other platforms declined. Cable saw a rather surprising drop, especially in North America.
• Among the largest twenty markets all but two recorded fixed broadband subscriber growth in Q4 2023. Italy and Canada recorded a decline in subscribers as the figures migrating to fibre broadband were not sufficient to compensate for copper and cable based subscriber churn.
• The highest FTTH/B broadband subscriber growth rates in Q4 2023 were in Algeria, Belgium, Peru, Pakistan and UK, all of which recorded growth in double figures.

During Q4 2023, global fixed broadband subscribers increased by 0.96%, reaching 1.43 billion. The growth rate was the lowest since Q4 2019. The much lower than usual growth in China (1.03%), not least to market saturation, had a significant impact on the global growth figures.

The slowdown in the Chinese fixed broadband market also led to East Asia’s share of fixed broadband subscriber net adds dropping to 49.7%, compared to 74.65% in Q3 2023. Nevertheless, the region continued to dominate, maintaining its position as the largest fixed broadband market with a 50.02% share of global subscribers, primarily driven by China with its vast population[2] (Table 2). When it comes to net additions, however, other regions saw their market shares jump as a result of lower adds in East Asia. The quarterly difference was especially pronounced in the rest of Asia and Africa, where such large markets as the Philippines, Thailand and Egypt saw their quarterly growth recover in Q4 2023.

Eastern Europe’s net additions share increased from 1.86% to 3.82%, reflecting the stabilisation in the Ukrainian broadband market. The rest of Europe saw its net additions share go up from 3.45% to 6%, as the large markets of Germany, France, UK and some others recorded higher growth and net additions.

North America witnessed a jump in the net additions share from 5.76% to 8.24%, impacted by a higher growth in the US.

Next we look at fixed broadband penetration among population, comparing it to growth rates across the regions. Given its low fixed broadband penetration (4.6%), Africa led in terms of growth rate in Q4 2023 with 3% q-o-q. The region remains a growing market with a high potential for expansion, though the dominance of mobile broadband technologies will be hard to overcome. We recorded the second highest growth rate of 1.6% for Asia-Other, where penetration remains very low at 5.9%.

On the other hand, Europe, North America and Oceania recorded modest growth rates of below 1%, while enjoying relatively high population penetration, especially in the case of Europe – Other (39.8%) and North America (39%). These regions have a limited potential for expansion, with migration from copper to fibre and, to some extent, Docsis3.1 remaining the prominent trend. Oceania had a population penetration rate of 33.3%, pointing to a market approaching maturity, too. While growth in Eastern Europe remained low at 0.7%, it has recovered slightly from 0.5% recorded in the previous quarter. The region’s fixed broadband penetration rate of 25.2% leaves some headroom for market expansion.

America-Other (Latin America) and East Asia were next in the quarterly growth table, with 1.1% and 1% respectively. As we mentioned, East Asian markets are nearing saturation, with the regional penetration rate at 43.8%, but Latin America has considerable growth potential, with only 17.8% of population living in households subscribing to fixed broadband.

Country and technology trends
In Q4 2023, the fastest growth came mainly from the developing countries and least mature broadband markets. In the case of Burkina Faso, Mali and some other countries in this category, the growth came from a very low base.

Among the largest twenty broadband markets all but two saw fixed broadband subscribers grow in Q4 2023 (Table 3). We recorded a decline in subscribers in Italy and Canada. In Italy, the number of subscribers migrating to full fibre were not sufficient to compensate for copper-based subscriber churn. In Canada, it was a combination of decline in copper and cable connections. Rogers Cable announced that they have removed 182,000 cable broadband subscriptions from their books as the operator stopped selling one of the plans.

Similarly, in the US, Charter have lost 61,000 cable broadband subscribers while Comcast recorded a 34,000 cable broadband subscriber churn, as consumers appear to abandon dominant providers and older wired technologies. According to Chris Winfrey, President and CEO of Charter, ‘Internet growth in our existing footprint has been challenging, driven by admittedly more persistent competition from fixed wireless and similar levels of wireline overbuild activity’.

In ten of the twenty largest fixed broadband markets the growth in Q4 2023 was slower than in the previous quarter. We recorded the most significant slowdown in China and India.

Nevertheless, India was at the top of the quarterly growth league table (the largest 20 fixed broadband markets) with 3.75%. The largest improvement in growth rate in Q4 2023 was in Egypt (+10.12%), which recovered from a slump in the previous quarter.

Technology trends
Fibre continues to be the dominant broadband technology, and its market share continues to grow. Between Q3 2023 and Q4 2023, the share of FTTH/B connections in the total fixed broadband subscriptions went up by 0.47% and stood at 69.45%. Broadband connections based on other technologies saw their market shares shrink further, with an exception of satellite, whose market share remained stable.

The share of FTTx (mainly VDSL) stood at 6.92%, down from 7.02%[3]. FTTx subscriber numbers still grew in 19 countries (including quarterly increase in the large VDSL markets of Turkey and Germany, for example), while they fell in 30 markets as consumers migrated to FTTH/B.

In the context of fibre broadband expansion, we looked at the growth of FTTH/B in markets with at least 0.5 million fibre broadband connections (Table 5). Among the ten fastest growing markets, six were in developing economies. Algeria, Belgium, Peru, Pakistan and UK recorded FTTH/B growth rate of more than 10%. In the UK, the growth in FTTP connections was due to higher penetration rates being reported by the altnets. Openreach and BT also reported higher FTTP connections due to the cessation of dual copper legacy lines. BT is heavily promoting full fibre switchovers to its EE brand which is now the flagship consumer brand.

n terms of FTTH/B broadband net additions in Q4 2023, China continued to maintain a significant lead with 5.6 million, while India and United States once again added more than a million each. See our complete dataset for full details.

Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, broadband technologies diverged further. The number of copper lines saw another decline (-13.7%), while FTTH/B connections grew by 10.3%, as consumers continued to show preference for higher, more reliable bandwidth and the availability of full fibre networks increased further. In the face of competition from fibre, FWA and 5G, cable broadband subscribers also declined by 2.7%, while FTTx dropped by 1.6%. We recorded a 1.9% drop in the satellite broadband connections, which was mainly due to inconsistent reporting in Mexico, where the figures might be restated at a later date.

Wireless broadband (mainly FWA) connections continue to grow – they went up by 6.6%, not least due to healthy growth rates in the US, especially by T-Mobile and Verizon. We expect this trend to persist due to demand for connectivity in remote and underserved areas where wired broadband infrastructure is difficult to deploy, and due to some consumers cord-cutting their broadband access services.

Overall, our analysis confirms a persistent shift of consumers towards more reliable, symmetric bandwidth, ultrafast broadband options like FTTH/B. Meanwhile, traditional technologies like copper and even cable-based broadband are seeing a decline. This trend continues as providers aim to satisfy the ever growing demand for faster and more dependable broadband services and to enhance the value of their networks. PointTopic