The company’s 2022 Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report predicted that the kinetic subscription video-on-demand arena in 2022 will see at least 150 million SVOD paid subscriptions will be cancelled worldwide, with churn rates of up to 30% per market. To succeed in 2022, Deloitte recommends that SVOD providers work to better understand their customers lifetime value, develop more options for different audience segments, and offer an array of entertainment options.
Yet in what could be hugely more significant news for the industry, Deloitte added that TV’s golden age may be nearing the beginning of its end. It predicts that in the UK, 2022 will be the final year that traditional television from broadcasters, whether live, time-shifted, or on demand, collectively makes up more than 50% of video viewing on all screens. The analyst expects traditional TV broadcasters’ share of viewing hours among UK consumers, which was 73% as recently as 2017, to fall to 53% in 2022 and then to 49% in 2023.
Deloitte stressed that it was focusing on the UK, because the market’s trends were likely to foretell those in dozens of other markets with a similar composition of providers. That is, public service and commercial broadcasters, pay-TV companies (satellite, cable, and IPTV); VOD providers (subscription, broadcaster, and ad-funded); social media; and games consoles.
In the UK, the 2022 Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report also found that broadcaster content made up 61% of all viewing in 2020 overall, but among 16–34-year-olds, that figure was just over half that, at 32%, and among 16–24-year-olds, it was 26%. Among 16–34-year-olds, broadcaster content had made up 49% of viewing as recently as 2017: over three years, that share fell 17 percentage points. Conversely, SVOD’s share among this age group rose from 11% to 29% over the same time period. Rapid TV News